This study addresses the critical issue of strategic risk identification and assessment in the internationalization of Chinese private enterprises, with a focus on the F Group as a case study. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach combining the Delphi method and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), we developed a comprehensive risk index system comprising 22 indicators across five dimensions: strategic environment, resources, capabilities, decision-making, and entrepreneurial factors. Findings reveal that strategic environmental risks (e.g., political, economic) and entrepreneurial competencies (e.g., leadership learning ability) are the most significant determinants of internationalization success. Empirical evaluation of three cross-border M&A projects (AHAVA, Club Med, Fidelidade) demonstrates the model’s applicability, highlighting variations in risk exposure and management efficacy. The study contributes a novel framework for risk quantification, offering actionable insights for emerging market firms navigating global expansion complexities.